"Hungary is leaving the EU because it does not want to jeopardize its sovereignty," Saxo Bank analysts predict

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Danish investment bank Saxo Bank has released a "shock forecast" for 2020. Although the latter are considered unlikely, their potential consequences threaten the stability of financial markets.
Saxo Bank analysts stress that their "shock forecasts" should not be considered an official recommendation, while suggesting that investors do not mislead themselves by underestimating the likelihood of such events.

OIL WILL GET UP
According to analysts, Russia and OPEC countries will respond to threats of shale oil production in the United States and announce further declines in production. After that, the price of the Brent barrel will rise to $ 90, which is above all favorable to Russia.

Moscow could also benefit from green energy development, experts say. Particular attention to climate issues has led to an increase in the demand for “green” raw materials needed to produce means of controlling emissions from vehicles. Keep in mind the popularity of palladium used in air quality improvement vehicles, of which Russia is one of the largest suppliers.

TRUMP'S TAX TO PROMOTE DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
According to experts, the protectionist policies of the Trump administration will lead to the adoption of the "America first" tax. Trump is calling for a restructuring of the entire tax system to boost domestic production.

"Seeing the result of polls predicting his defeat in the election, Trump is losing his patience and wants an America First emergency tax." The country's tax system will be completely restructured and optimized for domestic production under the so-called "fair and free trade" principle, Saxo Bank analysts write.

Under this scenario, the White House will abolish all today's taxes and adopt a 25% VAT on all gross earnings of US companies that have acquired it abroad.

WILL TRUMP LOSE IN ELECTIONS?
Experts note that the current 2016 presidential victory was achieved thanks to the votes of white and senior voters. Currently, the largest generation in the United States is between the ages of 20 and 40, who are more liberal than the older generation.

According to Saxon Bank Investment Director Steen Jacobsen, Democrats who support youth expect a victory with 20 million votes, and Massachusetts President Elizabeth Warren will be elected as the new president.

HUNGARY WILL LEAVE EU
Defending national interests and traditional values ​​defended by Hungary could lead to a split between Brussels and Budapest. Therefore, the EU would initiate proceedings under Article 7 of the EU Treaty against Hungary, citing the increasingly stringent restrictions adopted in the country against freedom and independence of the press, justice and science, analysts at the bank predict.

The Hungarian authorities disagree with these claims and insist on sovereignty, including the right to protection from mass migration. Divorce is more than certain, analysts say.

ASIAN IMF
In the context of US threats to turn the dollar into a commercial warfare weapon, a new reserve currency, similar to the IMF "Asian Special Drawing Right" or abbreviated ADR, could emerge in Asia. This reserve currency will become the largest monetary unit in the world and will be worth two US dollars.

Analysts assume that ADR will become the primary payment instrument in the Asia-Pacific region. According to them, just a few months after the creation of these assets, the dollar will fall by 20% compared to ADR.

The dynamics of change are accelerating. Obviously, we are going to witness a sovereignist policy that many have condemned until yesterday, believing that there is no alternative to globalism or internationalism. With a little mind, the Balkan countries need not worry too much. When the big ones are sorting out the bills, the little ones need to stand aside and wait for the outcome.

There will be no major crisis until the US presidential election. Neither war nor financial. We do not need Saxo Bank analysts to conclude. Everything has already been seen. A man is a monkey, repeats, sins, but learns nothing.